A Shift in Global Security Threats

A Shift in Global Security Threats

While the world still faces security threats from malign states and actors looking to overturn the post-World War II architecture, including terrorism and rogue states looking to expand their territories at their neighbors’ expense, the world has changed. Today, we struggle against transnational challenges that respect no boundary, said Richard Verma, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources.

The three main concerns are a global pandemic and its impact; misuse of the enormous advances in technology that can be used to deliberately misinform people, to rob them, and even to surveil and harass entire populations; and finally, climate change. We have already experienced the first two and have developed new tools to deal with the first two.

But climate change is an entirely different matter. “The first vector is the impact of climate change on the most vulnerable around the world: those who are already facing poverty or internal civil strife,” or those with high exposure, said Deputy Secretary Verma.

“The Intelligence Community in its Climate Change and National Security Estimate predicted that the physical effects of climate change in these countries increase the potential for instability, humanitarian crises, and possible internal conflict.”

The fact is that “Climate change could exacerbate cross-border geo-political flashpoints, as countries seek to advance and protect their own interests,” said Deputy Secretary Verma. “We see this already in the Arctic where rapid warming is literally changing the political, economic, cultural, and security contours of the Arctic.

Then there is the battle over water resources. “Nearly 40 percent of the world’s population depends on water that is shared with another country,” said Deputy Secretary Verma. “We see potential for rising tensions particularly in river basins where the rate of change is greater than can be absorbed by local institutions and agreements.”

Finally, climate change will impact our operational readiness: that is, troops and military facilities, embassies and consulates as well as the global critical infrastructure.

Quoting Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Deputy Secretary Verma said that climate change fundamentally alters the conditions that shape military operations. The Defense Department must adapt to the ways in which extreme weather and climate change affect our readiness and capabilities.

“The international landscape is complex and often dangerous,” said Deputy Secretary Verma. “The choices we make today about our most fundamental values … will shape the trajectory of our country and global community for generations to come.”