It’s hard to believe that the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, where 1200 people, mostly civilians, were brutalized and massacred, and some 250 others were taken as hostages into terror tunnels, serves as an inspiration to terrorists, an event to imitated.
But that is what Brett Holmgren, Acting Director of the U.S. government’s National Counterterrorism Center, or NCTC, contends. In a recent interview, Director Holmgren called the October 7 attack by Hamas “a generational event.” According to data available to NCTC, there have been “more than 40 either attacks or disrupted plots in over ... 20 countries just in the last year that have had some link, whether inspired or motivated, by 7 October,” he said.
Director Holmgren noted that the October 7 attack occurred at a time when groups like ISIS and al-Qaida were at some of their lowest operational levels. “It provided,” he said, “a shot in the arm when it comes to recruitment, fundraising.” He believes October 7 “will turn out to be the most consequential recruiting event” for the global terrorism movement since the Iraq war.
Since Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands there, Director Holmgren said Hamas “has been significantly diminished” militarily. Yet, he noted, “Even a diminished Hamas has been able to recruit new members to its ranks, and will likely continue its ability to do so, so long as disaffected young Gazan men have no viable option on the ground to turn to.”
That is why the United States has been working hard on a plan for what Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called “the day after” in Gaza. Speaking at the conclusion of the recent G7 summit in Italy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was adamant: “We ... need to make sure that, in order to end the conflict, we have a clear plan for what follows the conflict, that enables the people of Gaza to move forward with their lives – without Hamas, and with Israel having pulled out of Gaza.”
That would be a future that would most discomfit and discourage terrorists. As President Joe Biden has said, “There has to be a vision of what comes next. And in our view, it has to be a two-state solution. It means a concentrated effort from all the parties ... to put us on a path toward peace.”
